The Future of U.S. Stance on North Korea

The Biden Administration is inheriting a hostile North Korea from the Trump Administration. After the 2019 U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi failed, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un “identified the United States as the country’s primary enemy” to its government in January 2021. The Biden Administration has yet to take formal actions regarding North Korea and is showing mixed signals. On the one hand, Biden’s press secretary Jen Psaki announced plans to pressure North Korea. On the other, Sung Kim—a top U.S. negotiator who participated in the 2018 Singapore Summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-un—is the acting assistant secretary of state for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. Depending on the Biden Administration’s stance—a continued hardened stance or peace talks— the United States will be pleasing one of its two East Asian allies: South Korea (RoK) or Japan.

At the start of the U.S.-RoK security alliance, the two countries were on the same page as they fought against North Korea during the Korean War to contain the spread of communism. Following the War, South Korea and the United States faced North Korean security threats and nuclear aggression. Between 1953 and 2003, North Korea committed 1,439 major security provocations and was responsible for the deaths of 309 RoK and 90 U.S. soldiers. 

Yet, recently, the United States is failing to view North Korea from the same perspective as South Korea. The United States has fixated on North Korean regime change because it has and continues to focus on the threats posed by North Korea’s military aggression, authoritarianism, and nuclear proliferation. However, South Korea is increasingly worried about the collapse of North Korea and now prefers “policy of transformation of North Korea through engagement.” Since South Korean President Moon Jae-in took office, he has been implementing the “Moonshine’ policy, which emphasizes the pursuit of dialogue with North Korea instead of the U.S.-led isolation and punishment of the regime. In 2017, South Korea granted the first inter-Korean civilian exchange since the beginning of 2016 and resumed humanitarian assistance to North Korea. In late January 2021, the current president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, advised the incoming Biden Administration to “learn from the failures of President Donald Trump’s diplomatic engagement with North Korea” and to pursue a “positive atmosphere for dialogue.” Thus, a softer U.S. stance against North Korea would be in South Korea’s favor. 

Japan is on the other end of the spectrum. Since the end of the 20th century, North Korea has been posing a security threat to Japan. North Korean nuclear weapon development and infiltration into Japan with agents were the start of these concerns. The 1993 North Korean Missile Test conducted in the Sea of Japan became the first successful test of North Korean mid-range missiles and the 1998 North Korean missile test-launched missiles that flew over Japan. The constant missile testing is heightening Japanese fears, making North Korea a crucial part of Japanese defense planning. Furthermore, the North Korean threat has become a justification for continued and increased U.S.-Japan security alliance because Japan and the United States prioritize the same outcome regarding this issue: Japan wants a North Korean regime change and has been sanctioning North Korea.

The security concerns over North Korea have persisted into the 21st century. Between 2016 and 2018, North Korea conducted at least three nuclear tests and fired around 40 ballistic missiles. While President Trump was in office, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono re-established the Japanese stance that economic sanctions against North Korea should persist until North Korea denuclearizes. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asked President Trump to pressure North Korea into returning the Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea between the 1970s and 1980s. In November 2019, North Korea launched another test, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe criticized the action as a ballistic missile test. After the North Korean military parade in 2021 January, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi announced that Japan is collecting and analyzing information, demonstrating worries about North Korea’s new weapons, such as the submarine-launched ballistic missiles. As soon as President Biden took office, Japan asked the new administration to continue pressuring North Korea to return Japanese abductees. 

Depending on which stance the Biden Administration chooses regarding North Korea, one East Asian ally will be relieved, and the other will be concerned. South Korea has been pursuing a peaceful dialogue with North Korea, is unhappy with President Trump’s failures in maintaining peaceful relations, and prefers the Biden Administration to establish channels of communication and working-level negotiations with North Korea. On the other hand, Japan views North Korea as a security threat and would favor a continued hardline stance against North Korea. Thus, as the Biden Administration strategizes its policy on North Korea, it will need to keep its geopolitical allies in mind. 

Seungmin (Helen) Lee is a MIA candidate at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) and a digital editor for SIPA’s Journal of International Affairs.