Mexican Elections: Between a Populist Agenda and Alternative Visions
(Photo/The Angel/Jazmin Vega)
by Jazmin Vega Castellanos
This article talks about Mexican elections with polls favoring Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate of Morena, and the legacy of AMLO. Should Sheinbaum emerge victorious, there's scant assurance she won't uphold AMLO's policies. Conversely, if she faces defeat, the opposition's vision for the country remains unclear.
In June, Mexico will undergo its largest electoral process to date, where citizens will choose 20,367 officials at both federal and local levels. Beyond the sheer magnitude of the electorate, this process is groundbreaking for two reasons: it would result in the election of the country's first female president, and it will either solidify the "National Project" of Morena, Mexico's most influential political party, or shift the direction of Mexico’s political agenda.
The main candidates, Xóchitl Gálvez (from the political alliance “Fuerza y Corazón por México”) and Claudia Sheinbaum (Morena), are both well-prepared women. Yet, Sheinbaum is for many, the continuation of a populist regime, while Gálvez stands with a coalition of parties that offer no concrete strategy to battle Morena’s divisive narrative. Like elsewhere in the world, this situation demotivates voters weary of traditional politicians. However, as we near the end of the first presidential term under Morena, it is crucial to evaluate the tangible changes in the country under Morena's governance and what each candidate symbolizes since they do not follow rigid conservative or liberal identities. This becomes especially pertinent as Gálvez gains momentum in the election, challenging initial perceptions that Sheinbaum was the undisputed frontrunner at the beginning of the electoral period.
Morena’s “National Project” is an idea coined by current President López Obrado, founder of the party, who in 2018 promised a "historic transformation" of national public life and a "regime change" in the Mexican political system, aiming to shift power from the elites to the people. His narrative was persistent due to the high levels of inequality in the country and the prevalence of power in two main parties: the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI, for its initials in Spanish) and the National Action Party (PAN), which formed the Fuerza y Corazón por México alliance to compete in this year elections.
For the majority of the twentieth century, Mexico was governed by the PRI which thrived by employing democratic and authoritarian economic and social strategies. It allowed market aperture and competition but refused to let any actor outside the party to govern. Then 2000, there was a federal “democratic transition” and for the first time a different party - the PAN- became victorious during the presidential elections. However, after three more six-year terms of transition, the country kept suffering from high levels of corruption and inequality.
Fastfoward to 2018, Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) came to power through a party founded by himself and following populist communication tactics, offering solutions to inequality and corruption without a clear strategy. In the 2018 election, AMLO's party, Morena, not only secured victory in the presidential race but also gained a majority in Congress and the Senate, as well as the governorship of five states. Since then, Morena has expanded its influence, now governing 21 states and emerging as the frontrunner in this year's presidential election, with its candidate Claudia Sheinbaum leading the polls by an average of 25 points.
For some, Sheinbaum epitomizes the continuation of AMLO’s national vision, which, despite his calls for political transformation, has upheld the country's long standing fiscal discipline dating back to the 1980s, commitment to free trade via USMCA, autonomy of the Bank of Mexico, and emphasis on attracting foreign direct investment and controlling inflation for growth. However, not everything has remained the same. The current president successfully halted the implementation of the 2013 energy reform, opting instead to bolster Pemex (the Mexican state-owned petroleum company) and the Federal Electricity Commission, thereby reducing competition with private entities. Furthermore, he has instigated militaristic trends in construction and aviation, while intensifying efforts towards the development of the Southeast. Should Sheinbaum emerge victorious in the presidential election, she may continue these initiatives, which some argue have constrained Mexico’s economic potential.
More concerning are the political changes observed during the current six-year term, signaling a weakening of democracy. While Mexico's democratic system faces various challenges, including issues such as illegal campaign financing, electoral clientelism, and the influence of organized crime in elections, voting remains fundamentally free. However, the federal government has intensified its intervention in electoral bodies to favor the ruling party. This includes ongoing rhetorical attacks and intimidation tactics directed at critics, opponents, and activists. Moreover, despite the formal separation of powers, the Executive branch seeks to exert control over both the Legislative and Judicial branches. Congress appears to have abdicated its oversight role over the Executive, leaving the Supreme Court as the primary defender of constitutional order during critical moments, such as when AMLO attempted to modify the National Electoral Institute (INE).
Despite the democratic setbacks in the country, the escalating violence by organized crime, and the migrant crisis on both the northern and southern borders— which has been ignored by the current administration— AMLO maintains an approval rate well above 50%, which has helped Morena’s presidential candidacy. Some explanation behind this is the prevailing economic optimism stemming from a current period of poverty reduction and excitement over nearshoring projects. There is also widespread dissatisfaction among the population with wealth concentration and social inequality, which persist and serve as narrative tools for AMLO and his party.
President López Obrador has steered Mexico's course without a doubt, but the potential impact of a Claudia Sheinbaum victory during the next six years is still unpredictable. While Sheinbaum pledges continuity and "the second phase of transformation," her background as a technocrat and her governance of Mexico City suggest a return to pre-López Obrador policies — less intervention on autonomous bodies that enhance democracy and investment in green energy. However, it's unlikely that she will abandon AMLO's divisive rhetoric, making Galvéz appear as a more appealing alternative for a moderate section of the electorate.
I had the opportunity to hear Galvéz speak at a conference during her visit to New York last February. Her policy approach leans towards specialists for addressing specific governance issues, advocating for gender and LGBT rights, supporting private enterprises for economic development, and being open to investment. Additionally, she emphasizes on unity and moving away from the divisive narrative promoted by AMLO. However, it is worth noting that she is supported by the PRI and the PAN, two parties with mixed track records in federal administration and members still holding somewhat outdated views.
Still, Galvéz has been able to increase her chances of being elected, starting the electoral period with 25% of voters' preference and reaching 34% in April. Despite Claudia Sheinbaum currently leading the polls, the election outcome remains uncertain.The contest might narrow more as we approach the final weeks of the electoral campaigns, reflecting a polarized society. More importantly, Congress, Senate and local elections should also be under observation by anybody wishing to avoid the intervention of one federal power over another, or a one party rule.
The outcome of these elections holds the potential to not only shape Mexico but also influence the entire American continent, as Mexico's economy is deeply intertwined with the United States, and the country serves as both a corridor and final destination for migrants. The complex electoral landscape, which defies traditional left-right political identities, presents a challenge for voters amidst a global backdrop of heightened fear and anger stemming from political affiliations. A victory for Morena, particularly with Sheinbaum at the helm, would test the feasibility of implementing a "national project" over successive presidential terms. In contrast, a loss would offer the opposition an opportunity to present an alternative vision, which has been lacking in recent decades. Only time (and the election!) will tell.
Jazmin Vega (MIA ‘24) is a Fullbright scholar from Mexico. She graduated with a bachelor's degree in International Relations and her professional background includes working at a public affairs consultancy firm.